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《MedRxiv，3月6日，Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak: an observational and modelling study》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak: an observational and modelling study

    Shengjie Lai, Nick W Ruktanonchai, Liangcai Zhou, Olivia Prosper, Wei Luo, Jessica R Floyd, Amy Wesolowski, Chi Zhang, Xiangjun Du, Hongjie Yu, Andrew J Tatem

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843

    Abstract

    Background The COVID-19 outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective. Quantitative research is still needed however to assess the efficacy of different candidate NPIs and their timings to guide ongoing and future responses to epidemics of this emerging disease across the World. Methods We built a travel network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to simulate the outbreak across cities in mainland China. We used epidemiological parameters estimated for the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan to parameterise the transmission before NPIs were implemented.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843v1
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    • 编译者：zhangmin
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