《MedRxiv,2月18日,A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus》

  • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者: xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间:2020-02-19
  • A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus

    Antoine Danchin, Tuen Wai Patrick Ng, Gabriel TURINICI

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022939

    Abstract

    We explore here how variation in the SARS-CoV-2 virus tropism could influence epidemic spread. We use a compartmental model fit to the existing data. The model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective but that alternative virus forms (gut tropism) and a second propagation route (through environment) was present. For Singapore and Shenzhen region the secondary route does not seem to be active yet. Adequate prevention measures taking into account both routes should be implemented.

    *注,本文为预印本论文手稿,是未经同行评审的初步报告,其观点仅供科研同行交流,并不是结论性内容,请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022939v1
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  • 《MedRixv,2月18日,A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus》

    • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者:zhangmin
    • 发布时间:2020-02-20
    • A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus Antoine Danchin, Tuen Wai Patrick Ng, Gabriel TURINICI doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022939 Abstract We explore here how variation in the SARS-CoV-2 virus tropism could influence epidemic spread. We use a compartmental model fit to the existing data. The model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective but that alternative virus forms (gut tropism) and a second propagation route (through environment) was present. For Singapore and Shenzhen region the secondary route does not seem to be active yet. Adequate prevention measures taking into account both routes should be implemented. *注,本文为预印本论文手稿,是未经同行评审的初步报告,其观点仅供科研同行交流,并不是结论性内容,请使用者谨慎使用.
  • 《MedRxiv,2月18日,Study on SARS-COV-2 transmission and the effects of control measures in China》

    • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者:xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间:2020-02-19
    • Study on SARS-COV-2 transmission and the effects of control measures in China Bo Zhang, Hongwei Zhou, Fang Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023770 Abstract Objective To reconstruct the transmission trajectory of SARS-COV-2 and analyze the effects of control measures in China. Methods Python 3.7.1 was used to write a SEIR class to model the epidemic procedure and a back propagation class to estimate the initial true infected number. The epidemic area in China was divided into three parts, Wuhan city, Hubei province (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei) based on the different transmission pattern. A limitation factor for the medical resource was imposed to model the infected but not quarantined. Credible data source from Baidu Qianxi were used to assess the number of infected cases migrated from Wuhan to other areas. Results Basic reproduction number, R0, was 3.6 in the very early stage. The true infected number was 4508 in our model in Wuhan before January 22, 2020. By January 22 2020, it was estimated that 1764 infected cases migrated from Wuhan to other cities in Hubei province. Effective reproductive number, R, gradually decreased from 3.6 (Wuhan, stage 1), 3.4 (Hubei except Wuhan, stage 1) and 3.3 (China except Hubei, stage 1) to 0.67 (Wuhan, stage 4), 0.83 (Hubei except Wuhan, stage 2) and 0.63 (China except Hubei, stage 2), respectively. Especially after January 23, 2020 when Wuhan City was closed, the infected number showed a turning point in Wuhan. By early April, there would be 42073, 21342 and 13384 infected cases in Wuhan, Hubei (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei) respectively, and there would be 2179, 633 and 107 death in Wuhan, Hubei (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei) respectively. Conclusion A series of control measures in China have effectively prevented the spread of COVID-19, and the epidemic will end in early April. *注,本文为预印本论文手稿,是未经同行评审的初步报告,其观点仅供科研同行交流,并不是结论性内容,请使用者谨慎使用.