登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRxiv，3月18日，Transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese cities with different transmission dynamics of imported cases》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-19

  • Transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese cities with different transmission dynamics of imported cases

    Ka Chun Chong, Wei Cheng, Shi Zhao, Feng Ling, Kirran Mohammad, Maggie Wang, Benny Zee, Lei Wei, Xi Xiong, Hengyan Liu, Jingxuan Wang, Enfu Chen

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036541

    Abstract

    Background: Monitoring the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of the disease is useful in determining whether there is sustained transmission in a population. In this study, we examined Rt of COVID-19 and compared its transmissibility between different intervention periods in Hangzhou and Shenzhen. Methods: Daily aggregated counts of confirmed imported and local cases between January 1, 2020 and March 13, 2020 were analysed. A likelihood function was constructed to estimate Rt, accounting for imported cases.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036541v1
152浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRxiv，3月17日，Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-18
    • Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China Yun Qiu, Xi Chen, Wei Shi doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238 Abstract This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    118浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRxiv，2月18日，Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-19
    • Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study Adam J Kucharski, Timothy W Russell, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu, CMMID nCoV working group, John Edmunds, Sebastian Funk, Rosalind M Eggo doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901 Abstract Background: An outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to 46,997 confirmed cases as of 13th February 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Methods: We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January and February 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas. Findings: We estimated that the median daily reproduction number, Rt , declined from 2.35 (95% CI: 1.15-4.77) one week before travel restrictions were introduced on 23rd January to 1.05 (95% CI: 0.413-2.39) one week after. Based on our estimates of Rt,we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential as Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population. Interpretation: Our results show that COVID-19 transmission likely declined in Wuhan during late January 2020, coinciding with the introduction of control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan pre-control, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but may still cause new outbreaks eventually. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    158浏览量
    原文链接