登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRixv，2月27日，Transmission potential of the New Corona (COVID-19) onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-28

  • Transmission potential of the New Corona (COVID-19) onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

    Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649

    Abstract

    Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize the transmission potential of the COVID-19 outbreak aboard the Princess Cruises Ship, January-February 2020. Probably due to the enhanced quarantine control, overall Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early stage, but it exhibited fluctuations around the epidemic threshold, which suggests a very low probability of observing secondary outbreaks of the disease.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649v1
95浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRixv，2月28日，（第2版更新）Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-29
    • Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649 Abstract An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    161浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRxiv，3月6日，Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-03-07
    • Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 View ORCID ProfileKenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander Zarebski, Gerardo Chowell doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866 Abstract The potential infectiousness of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases together with a substantial fraction of asymptomatic infections among all infections, have been highlighted in clinical studies. We conducted statistical modeling analysis to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of the positive COVID-19 infections onboard the Princess Cruises ship along with the timeline of infections. We estimated the asymptomatic proportion at 17.9% (95% CrI: 15.5%-20.2%), with most of the infections occurring before the start of the 2-week quarantine. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    130浏览量
    原文链接