We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income contributed to the fertility transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, the sample period, the inclusion of education as an explanatory variable, and the use of different data sets. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.
Because ambient temperature strongly influences reproduction in frogs, the seasonal timing of frog calling provides a sensitive index of biotic response to climate change. Over the last century, daily temperatures increased during 5 of the 8 months key to gametogenesis in frogs and toads near Ithaca, New York (U.S.A.). Earliest dates of calling frogs recorded by Albert Hazen Wright between 1900 and 1912 near Ithaca were compared to those from the New York State Amphibian and Reptile Atlas Project for 1990-1999 for the three counties surrounding Ithaca. Four species are now calling 10-13 days earlier, two are unchanged, and none is calling later. The data suggest that climate has warmed in central New York State during this century and has resulted in earlier breeding in some amphibians-a possible first indication of biotic response to climate change in eastern North America.
The lack of historical macroeconomic series for regional economies hinders the knowledge of an explanatory factors of their economic evolution. The aim of this study is to work with series on an annual Gross Domestic Product for Andalusia in twentieth century. The authors find significant evidence that there are three structural breaks and that economic growth rate of GDP per capita was 1.64%, lower than 2.20% rate in Spain.
We have reappraised locations and surface wave magnitudes of earthquakes this century in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, between 10° and 44°N and 18° and 70°E. The results are presented in an improved parametric catalogue of shallow earthquakes ( h ≤ 40 km), large enough ( M S ≥ 6.0) to be of interest in seismotectonics and earthquake engineering. A considerable number of early events of 6 ≤ M S < 7.2, not included in other catalogues, have been identified and their magnitudes assessed. We find that ISS/ISC locations are systematically shifted by 10–30 km to the north or northeast of their macroseismic epicentres. Also we derived a regional average relationship between log M 0 and M S . We show that the correlation of magnitude with epicentral intensity is very weak, as is expected, and a source of error in frequency relations.
Smokingonce a socially accepted behavioris the leading preventable cause of death and disability in the United States. During the first decades of the 20th century, lung cancer was rare; however, as cigarette smoking became increasingly popular, first among men and later among women, the incidence of lung cancer became epidemic (Figure 1). In 1930, the lung cancer death rate for men was 4.9 per 100,000; in 1990, the rate had increased to 75.6 per 100,000 (1). Other diseases and conditions now known to be caused by tobacco use include heart disease, atherosclerotic peripheral vascular disease, laryngeal cancer, oral cancer, esophageal cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, intrauterine growth retardation, and low birthweight. During the latter part of the 20th century, the adverse health effects from exposure to environmental tobacco smoke also were documented. These include lung cancer, asthma, respiratory infections, and decreased pulmonary function (2).